Financial risks and mitigations

A number of financial risks have been identified and are being actively managed. Optimism Bias has been applied at a level deemed appropriate around risks and uncertainties to ensure prudent forecasting of future costs. 

Recruitment delays: There is a risk that delays in filling permanent posts could prolong reliance on costly interim arrangements. This is being mitigated through early, targeted recruitment campaigns and workforce planning.

Inflationary pressures: All cost projections include prudent inflation assumptions aligned to OBR inflationary forecasts, and ongoing monitoring will ensure that any emerging pressures are identified and addressed promptly.

Premises costs: While an interim cost-effective solution has been found for year one, longer term accommodation will be required, which if not possible from within the existing SG estate, will impact on overall budgets. Procurement options will ensure that effective cost control is maintained. Current future year assumptions are based on NSWA continuing to utilise SG estate and have been costed on a per meter squared basis from information provided by estates services colleagues. 

Programme budget volatility: Programme budgets are excluded from the core financial case, as they are unchanged and not relevant to the feasibility assessment. This ensures that the financial case remains focused on the core operational costs of the NSWA.

For clarity, the NSWA’s workforce development programme budget (£3.9m) and the recurring in‑year transfer of £3.7m from the Health portfolio are excluded from the core financial case, as these budgets are unchanged and sit outside the assessment of operational affordability.